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2019 Outlook – Black Swans: Trade War May Be The Least Of Our Worries

China 1724 Corp - Shipping 587 Mode - Containerized 978 Mode - Seaborne 1241 North Korea 35 Outlook 41 Taiwan 93 Theme - Canals 84 U.S. 3226 Vietnam 151

The integration of global supply chains leaves them vulnerable to “black swan” – low likelihood, high impact – events. The U.S.-China relationship may worsen should North Korea back away from denuclearization. America may well blame China, jeopardizing a trade deal even though China’s trade with the DPRK fell 52.6% on a year earlier in the 12 months to Nov. 30. U.S.-China naval rivalry in the South China Sea and China’s more hawkish stance towards Taiwan could become a military confrontation even if by accident. That would cause significant shipping issues in the region. The...

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